30 September 2022

科技如何帮助减轻黑天危害?

5 min read

Zero Pressure podcast host Helen Sharman discusses how the world needs to be much better prepared than it is now for a serious, 对我们的公用事业造成相互关联的破坏, 通信和服务:也被称为“黑天事件”.

这不是是否会发生的问题，而是我们的世界何时会经历“黑天事件”的问题。, where a complex chain reaction of paralysing disasters arises from the failure of one key piece of infrastructure due to a man-made attack or natural hazard.

That’s the hard-hitting message from the main guest in episode two of the second season of the Zero Pressure podcast, hosted by the UK’s first astronaut Dr Helen Sharman and presented by Imperial College London and Saab.

本文作者是电力基础设施安全公司(EIS)首席执行官兼总裁。, 研究这个问题的组织, 教育和培训高级管理人员, 所有部门的主要政府和非政府组织利益相关者.

In the podcast, Avi tells Helen that there is a “100% probability” that our highly interconnected world will experience a Black Sky Event over the next few decades.

他主张使用诸如无线电之类的老技术, plus new developments such as AI for the establishment of emergency communications and chaos management systems for decision-makers in all sectors to integrate with their own systems and knowledge, so that they know what to do and can respond together to solve a challenge we might face in the future.

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我们的世界是一个缺乏免疫系统的整体

Avi likens the tightly integrated industrial society of today’s world to an organic system, 系统的每个部分只有在其他部分都正常运作的情况下才能运作. 这种集成对于提高效率非常有用, he says, but we haven’t developed the accompanying immune system that exists in a biological organism, 使我们极易受到外部威胁.

And whereas biological organisms improve and develop resilience through evolution, 这只能通过大规模死亡来实现, 一个人类根本无法接受的前景.

“我们所熟悉和喜爱的基础设施, 让我们活着，让我们快乐, have become so intertwined that the disruption of any one infrastructure on a significant scale could cut the chain tying themselves together, 你可能会有级联失败,” he warns.

这些威胁有多种形式，既有人为的，也有自然的. Cyber and ransomware attacks or highly destructive weapons can be used to target infrastructure. 自然威胁包括地磁风暴(如1862年和1921年所见), asteroids, high-morbidity pandemics, 地震甚至是极端天气事件. These can all cause havoc, perhaps by first causing a national power grid to go offline. “一切都需要电。,” says Avi, “So you would immediately have cascading failures spanning all other infrastructures.”

不管哪个基础设施先被攻击, it would still have the same result of affecting the others – the internet going down would affect financial markets and in turn the power grids in the US, 谁关注市场并出价提供电力, would become inoperable. 这是一个恶性循环，没有水就无法恢复电力, fuel or transportation, 然而，那些其他基础设施也将无法运行.

但我们确实有直接的解决方案

并非所有的都是厄运和阴霾. Avi adds that there are some straightforward solutions available to us; it’s just that by and large we haven’t implemented them yet.

We can build an emergency communications system that is very widely deployed to all sectors and leaders and interconnected in the private, 每个国家的企业和政府部门. But it can’t be connected to the national telecoms systems which will crash if the power grid goes down.

Instead, Avi advocates for the use of technologies such as radio as an essential part of a hybrid capability, as well as a chaos management system that means decision-makers have some sense of what they must do at various stages of the crisis.

“The level of chaos because of the huge number of interdependencies and the disruption that is going to be occurring everywhere will make situational awareness very hard to do,” Avi explains. “我们需要一些机器的帮助，”他补充道. “We’re going to have to need a really good chaos management system…ready in advance.”

The question is whether we could create digital twins of our present interconnectivity, or whether we provide a common network that brings different actors together without them surrendering proprietary information.

Ultimately, while Avi Schnurr appreciates Helen Sharman’s point about humankind needing to explore other planets such as Mars to ensure human continuity, he believes that we need to focus on preserving and protecting what we have here on our planet.

“地球是我最喜欢的星球!他说，“维持人类在地球上的生命是一个巨大的优先事项。.“我们都需要意识到黑天事件的问题, 然后讨论它，形成一个关键的群体来推动变革.

“我们有技术，但没有意志力. 意志力来自我们每一个人.”